China's household balance sheet is becoming increasingly important for the macro outlook. With property a shrinking, although still dominant store of wealth, shifts in household assets and liabilities are now a key driver of confidence, consumption, and capital market performance.

中国的家庭资产负债表对宏观经济前景的重要性正日益凸显。尽管房地产作为财富储存手段正在缩水，但它依然占据主导地位。因此，家庭资产与负债结构的任何变化，如今都成了左右市场信心、消费意愿以及资本市场表现的关键驱动力

The PBOC and national think tanks have published household balance sheet estimates in the past, but those data are released with a long lag. To address that gap, we build a quarterly tracker and estimate that aggregate household assets peaked in early 2023, declined for about six quarters in 2023 and 2024, and have broadly stabilized at around RMB730tn in recent quarters.

过去，中国人民银行（PBOC）和国家级智库曾发布过居民资产负债表的估算数据，但这些数据的发布往往存在较长的滞后。为了解决这一信息空白，我们构建了一个季度追踪器。据我们估算，居民总资产在2023年初达到峰值，在2023年和2024年连续约六个季度出现下滑，并在近几个季度基本企稳于730万亿元人民币左右

On the asset side, the composition of household wealth is shifting. Housing has turned from a driver of asset growth into a drag, while equities and other financial assets have contributed more meaningfully to total asset growth since the September 2024 policy pivot. By our estimates, in mid-2021 when the property market peaked, property, cash/deposits, and other financial assets (including equities and bonds) accounted for 67%, 16% and 15% of household total assets, respectively; in 2026Q1, they accounted for 52%, 25% and 20%, respectively; directly held equities within other financial assets rose from 5% to 6%.

在资产端，居民财富的构成正在发生转变。房地产已经从资产增长的驱动力转变为拖累因素，而自2024年9月的政策转向以来，股票及其他金融资产对总资产增长的贡献变得更加显著。据我们估算，在2021年年中房地产市场见顶时，房地产、现金/存款以及其他金融资产（包括股票和债券）分别占居民总资产的67%、16%和15%；而到了2026年第一季度，这三者的占比分别为52%、25%和20%；在其他金融资产中，直接持有的股票占比从5%上升到了6%

On the liability side, households remain in a deleveraging phase, with outstanding mortgage balances and short-term consumer loans both declining. While headline（整体的） household debt-to-GDP ratio looks moderate relative to（相对） DM, the debt-to-income ratio remains high, suggesting debt servicing（偿还债务） is still burdensome relative to Chinese household cash flow.

在负债端，居民部门仍处于去杠杆阶段，未偿还的按揭贷款余额和短期消费贷款双双下降。尽管从宏观总量（整体居民债务占GDP的比重）来看，相较于发达经济体（DM），该比率显得较为温和，但债务收入比依然偏高。这表明，相对于中国居民的实际现金流而言，偿还债务的负担依然沉重

In our view, China's household asset allocation is at the early stage of a structural shift: as property's role in wealth accumulation fades and deposit rates stay low, savings are likely to migrate gradually toward broader financial assets, with equities and insurance the key potential（潜在的） medium-term beneficiaries.

在我们看来，中国居民资产配置正处于结构性转变的初期阶段：随着房地产在财富积累中的作用逐渐减弱，且存款利率保持在低位，储蓄资金可能会逐步向更广泛的金融资产转移，而股票和保险有望成为中期的主要受益者

For more than two decades, residential property has served as（充当） the main store of wealth for Chinese households, accounting for more than half of total assets. As nominal home prices have fallen by around 30% from their peak, the resulting negative wealth effect has become a persistent drag on household confidence and consumption. Yet investors have lacked a timely framework to assess how quickly Chinese household balance sheets are repairing or deteriorating（正在恶化）. While both the PBOC and national think tanks have published household balance sheet estimates, those data are released with a long lag. In this piece, we address that gap by constructing a quarterly household balance sheet tracker. We use it to assess how household assets and liabilities have evolved through the property downturn, quantify the extent of balance-sheet stabilization and deleveraging, and frame the implications（影响） for consumption, confidence, and the medium-term outlook for household asset allocation.

二十多年来，住宅房产一直是中国家庭财富的主要储存形式，占其总资产的一半以上。随着名义房价从峰值下跌约30%，由此产生的负财富效应已成为家庭信心和消费的持续拖累。然而，投资者一直缺乏一个及时的框架来评估中国家庭资产负债表修复或恶化的速度。尽管中国人民银行（PBOC）和国家智库都发布过家庭资产负债表的估算数据，但这些数据的发布存在较长的滞后性。在本文中，我们通过构建一个季度家庭资产负债表追踪器来填补这一空白。我们利用它来评估在房地产下行期间家庭资产和负债的演变，量化资产负债表稳定和去杠杆化的程度，并阐述其对消费、信心以及家庭资产配置中期展望的影响

The evolution of Chinese household wealth from 1978-2022 The National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD), formerly known as the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) Financial Laboratory, is a reputable state-run think tank which, through its Center for National Balance Sheet (CNBS), has released annual household balance sheet data covering 1978 to 2022. Their data indicate that the Chinese household balance sheet expanded during this period, with the net worth of households, as a share of GDP, increasing from 200% of nominal GDP in 1997 to around 400% in 2022 (Exhibit 1).

1978年至2022年中国居民财富的演变国家金融与发展实验室（NIFD）——其前身是中国社会科学院（CASS）金融实验室——是一家享有盛誉的官方智库。该机构通过其国家资产负债表研究中心（CNBS），发布了涵盖1978年至2022年的年度居民资产负债表数据。他们的数据显示，在此期间，中国居民资产负债表不断扩张。以占GDP的比重来看，居民净资产从1997年占名义GDP的200%增长至2022年的约400%（见图表1）

The annualized growth rate（年化增长率） of China's total assets, liabilities, and net worth underwent a three-stage step-down, reflecting slowing growth rates as the size of household balance sheet expanded (Exhibit 2).

中国居民总资产、总负债及净资产的年化增长率经历了一个“三阶段式”的下行过程，这反映出随着居民资产负债表规模的扩张，其增长速度正在放缓（见图表 2）

Between 1992 and 2002, a period marked by（以...为特征） very low starting levels, household assets grew at an annualized rate of 25%. This rate slowed to 20% during 2002-2012, coinciding with（恰逢） China's entry into the WTO in 2001 and a surge（猛增） in debt-fueled infrastructure and property investment post（在什么之后） the 2008-09 GFC. In the following decade, from 2012 to 2022, growth decelerated(减速) further as policymakers increasingly prioritized financial stability and deleveraging, despite several（几个） easing cycles（宽松周期） including the 2015-18 shantytown redevelopment program

在1992年至2002年期间，由于初始水平非常低，居民资产以25%的年化增长率扩张。这一增速在2002年至2012年间放缓至20%，这一时期恰逢中国于2001年加入世界贸易组织（WTO），以及2008-09年全球金融危机（GFC - global financial cricis）后，由债务驱动的基础设施和房地产投资激增。在接下来的十年（2012年至2022年），随着政策制定者日益将金融稳定和去杠杆放在优先位置，尽管期间经历了包括2015-18年棚户区改造（shantytown redevelopment）在内的数轮宽松周期，资产增速仍进一步减速

Throughout these periods, the annualized growth rate of household liabilities consistently exceeded（超过） that of household assets, partly owing to（由于） the much lower starting point of the former. This led to a structural build-up（结构性攀升） in leverage across（在整个...之中） the household sector, primarily fueled by(主要由...驱动) financial market developments and mortgage borrowing during the urbanization and property boom.

在此期间，居民负债的年化增长率始终超过资产的增长率，这部分是由于前者的（负债）初始基数要低得多。这导致了居民部门杠杆率的结构性攀升。这种现象主要由金融市场的蓬勃发展，以及城市化和房地产繁荣期间的按揭贷款热潮所推动